Cockiness stalled the Yes campaign. It could now scupper the No

But Labor insiders tell me a poll of about 14,000 voters the party conducted in the past month shows the situation isn’t quite as bad as Resolve, Newspoll and other published polls suggest. About a third of people were undecided or “soft” voters who can be persuaded to vote Yes. They also claim that in three states – Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia – the Yes vote is ahead, while in NSW it is a dead heat.

Yes campaign insiders acknowledge, too, that they have been too slow out of the gate in activating their campaign but they’re belatedly up to speed.

In practice, that has meant ramping up on-the-ground campaigning and media appearances by the likes of Noel Pearson and Thomas Mayo, and door-knocking, letter-boxing and campaign appearances at busy commuter railway stations and linking with high-profile independent MPs such as Allegra Spender and Helen Haines, as well as Liberal MPs who back Yes such as Bridget Archer, Matt Kean and Julian Leeser.

At the same, Labor operatives have door-knocked 5000 undecided voters and phoned another 15,000. As a member of the Yes camp puts it, what is becoming apparent is that when campaigners are able to have conversations with people about the Voice and what it will do, people say, “Oh, that’s pretty reasonable” and come around. Victory will be difficult to achieve but given the number of soft voters, it is still possible.

Which brings us back to No and the creeping hubris infecting that campaign. The best example of this was Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s recent interview on Melbourne radio station 3AW, in which the opposition Indigenous affairs spokeswoman mocked Melburnians’ expertise on the plight of Indigenous communities. Nampijinpa Price went on to declare that No didn’t need the “difficult” Victoria to defeat the referendum.

Technically, she’s correct: Yes needs the double majority of at least four states and a majority of the national vote, whereas No only has to win three states or the national vote.

However, by thumbing her nose at Victorians, Nampijinpa Price displayed an overconfidence that is not yet deserved, given that Yes has a larger pile of cash to spend on advertising, huge institutional support from government, business, unions and the major sporting codes, and about 2½ months to turn things around. (October 14 is still considered the most likely referendum date, given its proximity to the football grand finals and because the wet season will make voting up north difficult in November and December.)

Federal Nationals Party leader David Littleproud told me this week the campaign was far from over and that No did not have victory in the bag. He urged caution about softness in the No vote – a similar point to the one the Yes camp is making with its polling.

Littleproud has the framing right. The No camp would be wise to guard against hubris – a lesson that Yes has had to learn the hard way – and against more own goals such as that of Gary Johns, a leading No campaigner who suggested blood tests should be taken to prove a person’s Aboriginality. Because at present the No camp is risking the same mistake the Yes campaign has already made.

As it stands, Yes has only a narrow path to victory. If the Voice vote is lost – and the hopes of Indigenous Australian who want a greater say in government decisions about Aboriginal lives are dashed – then the early hubris of the Yes campaign will be at least partly to blame.

James Massola is national affairs editor.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.