Urban vs suburban: Brisbane’s great fertility divide

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Urban vs suburban: Brisbane’s great fertility divide

By Matt Wade

Stark differences in fertility rates have become entrenched across Brisbane, with the average number of births per woman in inner-city neighbourhoods less than half that of outer suburbs.

The Brisbane Inner City statistical region, which takes in the central business district and nearby suburbs, had a fertility rate of 1.03 in 2021 – way below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain a stable population, not including migration.

Fertility rates, which vary greatly across Brisbane, are affected by a number of factors.

Fertility rates, which vary greatly across Brisbane, are affected by a number of factors.Credit: Getty

That compared with fertility rates of 2.13 in the Logan-Beaudesert region and 2.05 in the Ipswich statistical district.

The fertility rate measures the average number of children women can be expected to have during their reproductive lifetimes.

Fertility rates fell in many parts of the world during the disruption and uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic. Australia’s rate hit a historic low of 1.59 in 2020 before recovering to 1.7 in 2021.

Fertility rates in every Brisbane region have declined during the past decade, reducing the citywide rate from 1.88 in 2013 to 1.66 in 2021. This map shows fertility rates in the nine major statistical regions of Greater Brisbane:

The Gold Coast region’s fertility rate was lower than Brisbane’s in 2021 at 1.58. That was down from 1.77 in 2013.

Analysis of Bureau of Statistics births data by Brisbane Times shows some of the state capital’s wealthiest neighbourhoods also have some of the lowest fertility rates. The Newstead-Bowen Hills area, which had the city’s highest median personal income in 2021 ($1405 per week), had the sixth-lowest fertility rate (0.73).

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Differences in fertility rates across the city are also reflected in the age at which women are having babies. In the Brisbane Inner City region, the median age of mothers who gave birth in 2021 was 33.6 years. That was almost 4½ years older than in the Logan-Beaudesert and Moreton Bay North statistical regions (both 29.2 years)

Many factors influence decisions about childbearing, including education, career, the cost of having a child (especially childcare), and individual financial circumstances. Economic conditions, especially labour market stability, play a role, as do social norms and expectations.

KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said the cost and types of housing available in different parts of Brisbane had a major influence on fertility patterns.

“Many families with kids who want a three- or four-bedroom home at an affordable price in Brisbane are likely to end up in the outer suburbs – hence you see that correlation with more children being born per woman in those areas,” he said. “It’s a similar story in other big cities.”

Australia’s fertility rate has been below the replacement level since the late 1970s, but official forecasts show healthy rates of overseas migration will ensure the population continues to grow.

In 2021, Brisbane’s fertility rate of 1.66 was higher than those of Melbourne (1.46), Canberra (1.46), Hobart (1.52), Adelaide (1.62) and Sydney (1.62), but below the rest of Queensland (1.73).

The Brisbane suburbs with the lowest fertility rates were Brisbane City (0.59), Spring Hill (0.61) and Fortitude Valley (0.62).

Highgate Hill (0.77) and St Lucia (0.83) were also among the 10 suburbs with the lowest fertility rates.

The rate in Brisbane Inner City (1.03) was comparable to very low rates in inner Sydney (1.0) and inner Melbourne (0.94).

Rawnsley said unique economic characteristics across the inner suburbs of Australia’s big cities contributed to their low fertility rates.

“The areas close to the CBDs of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have got more in common with each other, in terms of their economic structure, than the outer suburbs and towns surrounding them,” he said.

“Many living in those inner-city areas have higher degrees, they work in things like professional services or finance, and often have fewer children. So, there’s no surprise the fertility rates in those inner suburbs are all looking so similar.”

The highest fertility rates in Greater Brisbane were mostly on the urban fringe, including North Stradbroke Island (3.14), Riverview (2.75) near Ipswich, and Yarrabilba (2.68) near Logan.

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